The Fed has officially raised rates by 25 basis points to a 3.75–4.00% range at its September 16 meeting — the first hike since 2023, and the first under Chair Kevin Warsh. Notably, the decision was unanimous, with no dissenting votes.
With market-implied odds at 92.4% going into the announcement, the rate decision itself was barely a surprise. The more consequential detail sits in the dot plot: projections point to a year-end 2026 rate near 4.1%, implying the Fed is weighing one additional hike this year.
The move reverses one of last year’s three rate cuts, against a backdrop of inflation reignited by the war with Iran. As for Warsh — long openly skeptical of forward guidance — rather than committing to a specific path, he is likely to hold the line that there is no preset course, keeping options open for coming meetings.
Gold climbed 1.3% to $4,347/oz just ahead of the announcement on a softer dollar, then retreated toward $4,290 afterward — a textbook “sell the fact” reaction when an event has already been almost fully priced in.