Gold opened the new week (Sept 28) in the red, around $4,255–4,265/oz, extending its fourth weekly decline in the past five. Last week alone it shed more than $90, touching a weekly low near $4,244 before dip-buyers stepped in.
The main culprit is not the war but the bond market. The US 10-year yield sits near 5.2%, while the 30-year is at its highest since 2004. Meanwhile, CME FedWatch prices roughly a 71% chance of an October hike and 95% for December; New York Fed President John Williams also said another hike may be appropriate before year-end. The dollar is firmer and money is leaving gold ETFs — SPDR Gold Trust holdings fell to 1,054.56 tonnes, the lowest since Sept 17.
Brent crude remains around $104 a barrel, so inflation pressure has not eased. On the chart, $4,250 is the nearest support; a break could open the way to $4,220–4,240. This week’s August PCE, ISM manufacturing and nonfarm payrolls will shape expectations for the October Fed meeting. Longer term, central bank buying remains a structural anchor for gold.